James' notepad

Morality can pertain to states-of-affairs (states of affairs can be moral or immoral, or one can be more moral than another), but insofar as...

Rawls' "original position"/"veil of ignorance" doesn't work. The idea is that, since you don't know before...

Humans are bad at dealing with very high and very low probabilities. Some are not computable. Bank runs can be set off by sunspots. The ...

Taleb points out that investment strategies can appear to work for a long time, but eventually fail. He also says that whatever works cannot...

FiveThirtyEight.com is a website which aggregates political polls. It has a reputation as being more successful in its political predictions...

What is the probability of the price of gold falling to less than $100/oz before the year 2100? (Currently over $1000.) Approximately 0%? ...

In a bubble, prices rise gradually, but they can crash suddenly. The stock market can fall 30% in one day, but it will never rise 30% in one...