Saturday, 2 March 2019

Racism and epistemology

If you are not a racist, there is something seriously wrong with your epistemology. I do not mean racial bigotry: it is important to distinguish between factual ("scientific") racism, and racial bigotry. ("Scientific racism" is genuine science.) It is possible to be a scientific racist but not a racial bigot, and vice versa.

We can also distinguish between racist thoughts and racist actions. This gives us four categories:

  • Racist factual beliefs: for example, about racial differences in morphology.
  • Racist bigoted opinions: dislike of other races.
  • Racist actions motivated by facts: making sure donor and recipient for an organ transplant are from the same race; not bothering to test white people for sickle cell anaemia.
  • Racist actions motivated by bigotry: violence towards other races.
Clearly, "discrimination", treating people differently, is not bigotry if it has a reasonable basis.

Racist thoughts with a factual basis include all the statistical differences between the races. If you believe in racial differences, you are a racist. If you do not, you are wrong. Therefore, if you are not a racist, there is something seriously wrong with your epistemology.

Belief in racial differences is an inevitable consequence of belief in human differences. Belief in human differences is an inevitable consequence of belief in human evolution. This is why people who do not believe in human genetic differences are called "liberal creationists".

Humans are different from one another, mainly because of genes. It would be exceedingly unlikely for there to be no statistical differences between the races, and in fact there are such differences, because the races have been sufficiently genetically isolated, and subject to different selection pressures. Hence we see genetic resistance to malaria in Africa; adaptations to altitude in Tibet; and short people in the jungle. For the races to have remained the same would have been most improbable, and it did not happen.

"Race" is a mental tool

If you don't believe in race, there is something seriously wrong with your epistemology.

When people say "race isn't real", they prove too much. This argument is strictly correct, but it applies to all concepts. Concepts aren't "real", they are useful, they are mental tools. "Chairs" are no more "real" than "races", but "chair" is a useful construct. The only measure of the worth of a concept is how useful it is, not whether it is "real" or not. All words are social constructs, because words do not have objective definitions; their definitions are agreed socially. That does not mean words are not useful! I do not say words including "race" refer to real objects. Instead I say they are useful (or not useful).

Is "race" a useful concept? Yes, because it allows people to make accurate predictions. If I say someone is black, you can predict their ancestry is mostly from Sub-Saharan Africa. If I say someone is from the Sub-Saharan race, you can predict their appearance, and their likely susceptibility to sickle cell anaemia.

But how do we classify people into races? Where does one race stop and another one start? What about people of mixed race? The "racial purity" argument is sometimes used to denigrate the concept of race. The argument goes: even if a person can be half one race and half another, that implies that "pure" races exist. Either each parent was a "pure" member of one race, or had ancestors who were. All branches up one's family tree will eventually hit a pure ancestor, a member of a single race. Since this is not true, because the races have not existed forever because humans have not existed forever, and probably everyone has a tiny bit of DNA from all races anyway, thus, the argument goes, races do not exist.

This argument is misguided, because it sets up a foolish requirement for the concept of race, which it then knocks down. But "race" doesn't have to be pure to be a useful concept. "Species" is a useful concept, even though species hybrids are common in plants, and ring species exist. "Purity" supposes races have existed forever, sprung into existence is pure form, later to be intermingled. But of course they haven't, humanity hasn't existed forever. Races don't have to have existed forever for the concept to be useful. If you take a random sample of people from around the world, and genetically isolate them, after several generations that population will have become genetically homogenous. Hey presto, you have created a new race. That is pretty much how Ashkenazi Jews came about. To prevent races diverging, you need gene flow/immigration of about 2% of the population per generation. The actual figure. "The average number of migrants per generation between sub-Saharan Africa and Europe, over the past hundred thousand years or so, was 1.26." 1.26 individuals is far below 2% of the population.

It is not true that everyone has a little bit of DNA from every race. Given that you have far fewer slots in your genome than you have ancestors, you have plenty of ancestors from which you have not inherited any DNA. Even if one of your distant ancestors was from a different race, you are unlikely to have any DNA from that race. (Selection pressures will change this probability one way or the other.)

You have many more slots in your family tree than people have ever existed. If you go back 40 generations, you have a trillion slots in your family tree. But 1000 years ago, there were not a trillion people on Earth. Many slots are occupied by the same individual, and some individuals occupy many more slots than other individuals. A typical Englishman today is much more closely related to people living in England 1000 years ago than to people living in Sub-Saharan Africa 1000 years ago (or today).

The fact that ring species exist knocks down the complaint about the fuzziness of the races. Even though "species" or "race" are fuzzy concepts, they are still useful. People in North Africa have more Sub-Saharan DNA than people in Europe. A concept of race that could not deal with this, that required "purity", would not make accurate predictions. But a sensible concept of race has no problem with fuzzy borders. It simply says that genetic gradients will be greater in some areas than others. A physical border like the Sahara has produced a steeper genetic gradient between North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, than within Sub-Saharan Africa itself, where there is more gene flow and more homogeneity. It doesn't mean interbreeding is impossible, any more than interbreeding between species is impossible (though less common, less probable, with lower chance of success).

How many races are there? Are there subraces? This question is misguided. How many families are there? Are you a member of one family or several? Families can overlap, and a race is just "an extremely extended family", one that is "partly inbred", as Steve Sailer put it. Race is a useful concept, even though you are not able to say how many there are, or whether a group of people counts as one race or two. "Family" is a useful concept as well, despite having the same "shortcoming".

However, scientists do have a concept called a fixation index, of the genetic distance between two people. For a given arbitrary cutoff value, it will tell you whether two people are in the same race or not. So the number of races depends on the cutoff value you choose. This is not particularly relevant to making useful predictions, but it is somewhat relevant! For example, the fixation index between coyotes and wolves is 0.153. The fixation index between Europeans and Sub-Saharan Africans is 0.153. Sub-Saharan Africans are about as different from Europeans as wolves are from coyotes.

How do you tell what race someone is in? Clearly, when we talk about race, we are talking about ancestry. You can't just use appearance, because of convergent evolution. It is possible that two branches of humanity can end up with similar features. For example, Tibetans and Andeans are both adapted to high altitude, but they are not the same race. (The adaptations are different, with different genes.)

If I say someone is Sub-Saharan, or black, I mean they are descended from a population that lived there for a long time, with very little gene flow from other areas. Someone who has just moved to Africa does not become part of that race.

Isn't this circular? You are a member of a race because you are descended from people who lived there a long time; people who lived there a long time are the Sub-Saharan race. It doesn't matter if this is circular, because that is how concepts are bootstrapped. If I know your ancestry, I can predict your traits; if I know your traits, I can predict your ancestry. If I know your traits, I can predict your other traits.

Darwin called his book "the origin of species". What were the origin of species? Races! A population splits into two, with so little gene flow between them that they start to diverge genetically. After a time, they will be so different that we call them races. But they are still the same species -- they can still interbreed. The process could still be reversed: the populations could be brought back together, gene flow increased, and they would become one race again. But if the genetic isolation persists, after more time, they will diverge so much that interbreeding becomes very unlikely (though ligers and tigons are fertile). Now they are two species. With more time, they will diverge genetically still more, and interbreeding becomes totally impossible. They will forever be separate species.

Races are the origin of species. If races didn't exist, species could not exist. Species do exist, therefore races exist.

Friday, 1 March 2019

Concepts are mental tools

Concepts are mental tools, they do not have independent reality. Do not ask if a concept is "real", ask if it is useful.

Definitions of words are not objective; words are tools for communicating with others. They are tools for altering the mental states of other people.

Similarly, concepts are not objective; they do not necessarily refer to concrete objects in the world. They are tools for understanding the world.

Freud had a model of the psyche as id, ego and superego. Is this "true"? You can't cut open a brain and point to them. Does the theory make useful predictions? They don't have to be right every time, just better than chance, until a better model comes along. I don't say "falsifiable" because predictions don't have to be right every time.

If I say the brain has a cerebellum, this isn't a theory which makes predictions. But it is still a useful concept. I can talk about cerebellums and people will know what I am referring to. This does not rely on "cerebellum" referring to a concrete object. Objects are abstractions built out of atoms.

If I have a piece of software, a "black box", you can interrogate it and gain an idea of its behaviour. You might start to develop a theory of how it works, using abstract concepts like "id" and "ego". These might even match the abstract concepts in the mind of the person who wrote the software, or the abstract concepts you might develop if you read the source code and tried to understand it.

However, if you can never look at the source code, there always remains the possibility that your predictions are falsified. That is, even if you appear to be able to make perfect predictions, you might be wrong in the future. Again, even imperfect predictions can be better than chance.

Reality is like the black box. Your abstractions are not real, they are prediction generators that might work most of the time but could always turn out to be wrong.

The Lindy effect

The Lindy effect refers to anything whose life expectancy increases equal to or faster than its age. 

Typical companies last about 10 years: "the typical half-life of a publicly traded company is about a decade".

Kongo Gumi was a company founded in 578, and was still in operation when it was bought in 2006.

Laplace's rule of succession is a rule of thumb to generate a probability for something that hasn't ever happened. 0 is not a probability, so if the sun has risen a thousand times, one should estimate the probability of it not rising as 1/(n+1) = 1/1001.

One should expect long-lived companies to last longer. It is not just chance that they survived. But one's estimate of their life expectancy should not increase forever. The naive Lindy effect says a 1000-year-old company has a 50% chance of lasting another 1000 years. In reality, it is less than 50%. I would expect that the rate of increase in life expectancy to reduce, until life expectancy remains constant. Perhaps a 1000-year-old company can only be expected to live another 50 years. That's still much higher than a typical company!

Taleb on black swan positioning

Taleb:
Bonds are bad investments because the potential upside is limited (interest payments) compared to the high potential downside (the debtor defaults).
Equities are better: the downside is limited (you lose all your money), but the upside is unlimited.

The problem is that the upsides and downsides will probably be priced so their risk-weighted returns are the same. Still, there's something in it. Given a bond and an equity with the same expected return, take the equity.

Financial markets are anti-inductive

Many natural systems are inductive: they behave the same way tomorrow as they did yesterday. However, when you are up against an opponent in a game of strategy, your opponent reacts to you; you cannot assume they will behave the same way tomorrow. They will deliberately act differently, or add an element of randomness.

Financial markets are like an opponent. If you find a strategy that works, then other people will probably find it too, and then it will stop working.

Strategies that worked will stop working. Strategies that didn't work cannot be relied upon to work in future!

Taleb on evolution

Taleb points out that successful people must take risks, but that taking risks is no guarantee of success. Risk taking increases your variance: you might win big, or lose big. The winners might just have won by luck.

From the point of view of society, or evolution, this is no problem! Even if the winners win by luck, they still won! Settlers move to a new continent. Many die, but a few survive and thrive. This is good for society.