What is the probability of the price of gold falling to less than $100/oz before the year 2100? (Currently over $1000.) Approximately 0%?
It could be replaced by bitcoin, though it hasn't been replaced by any other currency yet.
What is the probability of the price of bitcoin falling to less than $100 before the year 2100? (Currently over $3000.) More than 1%?
It could be replaced by another cryptocurrency.
Demand for stores of value is distributed over various commodities. If demand remains constant, one currency's gain is another's loss.
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