Friday, 1 March 2019

Taleb on black swan positioning

Taleb:
Bonds are bad investments because the potential upside is limited (interest payments) compared to the high potential downside (the debtor defaults).
Equities are better: the downside is limited (you lose all your money), but the upside is unlimited.

The problem is that the upsides and downsides will probably be priced so their risk-weighted returns are the same. Still, there's something in it. Given a bond and an equity with the same expected return, take the equity.

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